Running (almost) on Empty

While attention is focused on the domino effect in the Southern Shore of the Mediterranean Sea, another domino piece in a different game is about to fall on the Northern Shore. At yesterday’s auction for 1 billion euro Portuguese 2 year bonds the average interest rate was almost 6%. Meanwhile the 5 year rate is above 7.6%. A simple spreadsheet shows that if the current interest rates do not fall substantially Portugal’s situation is unsustainable, i.e. the debt to GDP ratio will keep climbing relentlessly.

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